All indications– based on clear-headed analysis of polling data rather than wishful thinking, imagined last-minute “trends” and conspiracy theories– are that Barack Obama will narrowly defeat Mitt Romney in today’s presidential election.
On the other hand, it’s close enough that I won’t be flabbergasted if Romney manages to eke out a victory. Nor will I be shocked if Obama does somewhat better than expected. Nor if by this time tomorrow, we don’t know yet who won.
But let’s not forget that the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are are also in play.
As for the Senate, now controlled by the Democrats, it’s likely that Republicans have blown their chances of taking a majority– in part because two of their candidates, Todd “Shut That Whole Thing Down” Akin of Missouri and Richard “Gift from God” Mourdock of Indiana, couldn’t keep themselves from saying stupid things about rape. (Romney is expected to easily carry both states.)
Update: I live in a largely Republican area of the swing state of Virginia. I was just visited for the fourth time by an Obama door-knocker. I haven’t been visited once by a Romney door-knocker, although that may be because I’ve been ID’d as Democratic. I have got Romney brochures in the mail, though.
Update: Three websites I’ll be following tonight (all admittedly with a liberal/Democratic bias) are Talking Points Memo, The Plum Line and Think Progress. If any of our conservative/Republican readers want to recommend websites, they can do so in the comments.
Update: Populist Democrat and liberal icon Elizabeth Warren is projected to defeat Republican incumbent Scott Brown in the race for Senate in Massachusetts– providing the political right with another politician to become deranged about.
Update: Joe Donnelly is projected to defeat Richard “Gift from God” Mourdock in the Senate race in Indiana– another pickup for the Democrats.
Update: Democrat Claire McCaskill has been reelected to the Senate in Missouri, defeating Todd “Shut That Whole Thing Down” Akin.
Update: Fox News is projecting that Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin has defeated former Gov. Tommy Thompson in the Senate race in Wisconsin. If that holds up, Baldwin will become the first openly gay member of the Senate.
Final update (for tonight): Still to close to call here in Virginia and in Florida. But Obama is projected to win Ohio. NBC, CBS, CNN and Fox News declare that he has been reelected president.
Romney is slightly ahead in the popular vote, although that could easily change as more results come in.
Democrats are expected to keep control of the Senate, while Republicans will still have a majority in the House of Representatives.
See you tomorrow.