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Bad prediction, good prediction

The Guardian endorsing the Liberal Democrats:

the cause of reform is overwhelmingly more likely to be achieved by a Lib Dem partnership of principle with Labour than by a Lib Dem marriage of convenience with a Tory party which is explicitly hostile to the cause and which currently plans to redraw the political map for its own advantage. The momentum for change would be fatally undermined should the Conservatives win an overall majority. The Liberal Democrats and Labour should, of course, have explored much earlier and more explicitly how they might co-operate to reform the electoral system. During the campaign, and especially since the final leaders’ debate, the appetite for co-operation has clearly increased and is increasing still. Mr Clegg’s Guardian interview today underscores the potential for more productive engagement with Labour and is matched by fresh, untribal thinking from his potential partners.

Do you think The Guardian missed another potential scenario? D’Oh.

How could they miss this from April 25th?

It would be “preposterous” for Labour to have its leader remain in Number 10 if it came third in terms of votes, says Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg.

He told the BBC it was “potty” Labour could get fewer votes than their rivals but still try to form a government.

How could they ignore the clear signs that Labour was going to crash and burn and would be unable to offer the Liberal Democrats nothing better than a minority government?

However, Kudos to Chris Brookes of the Virtual Stoa, who wrote this before the election:

So on the most straightforward reading of the situation, if there’s a hung parliament, Clegg’s bluff will be called. He can threaten to bring down a Tory government in a vote on the Queen’s speech, but he’ll only perform if there’s reason to think that the Lib Dems will do even better in a second general election – and if I were David Cameron I’d be relishing the prospect of fighting all those Lib Dem/Tory marginals again in those circumstances. So what’s Clegg to do – if he isn’t to waste what ought to be the best Liberal opportunity since the second world war?

UPDATE from Alan A

I am hearing rumours that a deal has been done – Cameron/Clegg.

Let’s see.

Silly Guardian. They helped this happen. It won’t be forgotten.